RusEnergy

MOSCOW, October 4 (RIA Novosti) - The forecasted fall in Russian oil production this year to a symbolic 2.4% against the backdrop of skyrocketing oil prices points to the start of a period of stagnation in the oil sector that threatens to strip the country of its energy superpower status, a market watcher wrote in a respected business daily Tuesday. Vedomosti published an article by Sergei Suverov, the head of analysis with Gazprombank, a subsidiary of the Russian state-owned natural gas monopoly Gazprom, which said analysts saw a number of reasons for the stagnation. High taxes impeded investment and production growth, and political risks prevented companies from making long-term investments. Dwindling geological resources, poor export infrastructure, and frozen investment programs of two oil majors - troubled Yukos and Sibneft, in which Gazprom bought a 72.7% of share package last week - compounded these problems. Suverov said traffic jams and bottlenecks remained at the busiest transport corridors, and the timeframes for commissioning new corridors were uncertain, as they partially depended on the oil lobby. In addition, he said that high taxes represented a separate matter. Although the flow of petrodollars to the economy was a vitally important resource for the Stabilization Fund and a key to macroeconomic stability, Suverov continued that easily accessible reserves had been almost exhausted, and new projects, including shelf exploration in Western Siberia, required substantial funds. The oil sector today cannot be called more efficient than other industries, as investors value long-term returns more than current profits, Suverov wrote in the daily. Suverov said the situation could be remedied if Russian oil companies were encouraged to pursue long-term economic projects and, possibly, to expand to foreign markets. The analyst cited the example of Norway-based Norsk Hydro, whose current reserves are about to expire. The company signed a $2.45 billion deal to buy the U.S. independent oil company, Spinnaker Exploration, whose assets are concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico. Another example, Suverov said, is Russia's biggest private crude producer, LUKoil, which plans to obtain at least 15-20% in international projects. It is also already expanding to Kazakhstan's oil market, which shares LUKoil's interest in developing Caspian reserves. In the end, Suverov referred to the famous American saying: What's good for GM is good for America. Russia is yet to strike a balance between the state-controlled and corporate segments of the economy, Vedomosti said.