RusEnergy

 April 13, 2006 The Kommersant – The forecasts for crude production in 2006 have been trimmed both for Russia and for other oil states that are outside of OPEC, says the monthly report promulgated by International Energy Agency (IEA) Wednesday in the wake of another surge in crude prices. The outlook of Russia's government is even more pessimistic. Russia's production of crude won't be as high as forecasted for the following four years, IEA Executive Director Claude Mandil told The Financial Times yesterday. Mandil said he doesn't think the output will be so high outside OPEC, pointing to Russia first of all. The revision of IEA forecasts in respect of Russia could be hardly called surprising. Mandil told the meeting of G8 energy ministers in March Russia will grow production of crude by 2.5 percent to 3 percent in 2006. Today's forecast of IEA is 2.8 percent. The estimate was curtailed on colder weather in Siberia, which drove down production, and on takedown of Russia's two independent oil giants, Sibneft that became a part of Gazprom and YUKOS. This cost 200,000 barrels a day to Russia, IEA calculated. The interesting point is that Russia's cabinet is even more pessimistic about acceleration in crude output. Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko said in February Russia's production of crude will step up 2 percent to 2.5 percent this year vs. 2.2 percent in 2005. The outlook of Economic Development Ministry is traditionally discouraging. It sets forth 1 percent to 2 percent increase in near years.