Monday, April 07, 2008
Questions Linger Over Police Raid at TNK-BP
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THEORIES FLY Although Gazprom is seen as a front runner in the race for TNK-BP, some sources said they did not rule out state oil major Rosneft as another potential contender. Rosneft's chairman and deputy head of the Kremlin administration, Igor Sechin, is expected to remain one of Russia's most influential men even after President Vladimir Putin steps down to become prime minister under Medvedev. Medvedev and Sechin are often pitted against each other as informal leaders of the so-called liberal and hardliner clans inside the Kremlin, which vie for control of key assets. "The mere fact that the investigators said they were looking for files about Gazprom does not mean that the request for the raid came from Gazprom," said one source. "It may actually mean the opposite because you know well that corporate wars in Russia tend to be very complicated." Putin's administration has poor relations with Britain, following a spat over the murder in London last year of a former Russian agent that provoked a mutual expulsion of diplomats. TNK-BP is the largest single British investment in Russia and Putin blessed the creation of the venture in 2003. "I see very little reasons why Gazprom would want to do it (step up pressure on TNK-BP) now. They are perfectly well positioned to do it after the (Medvedev) inauguration. So I'd rather bet on the other (Sechin) clan," one source said. Another way of looking at the struggle, industry insiders say, is to consider that if Gazprom wants to buy into TNK-BP, then either the Russian billionaires or BP has to sell. Neither group wants to give up its stake in such a large and highly lucrative company so the temptation for both BP and the oligarchs is to try to cut their own deal with the Kremlin, which would involve removing the other shareholder. Some sources say a dispute between the Russian shareholders and BP has been rekindled. "I would not fully exclude this. The company itself has become a bargaining chip in this game," a TNK-BP source said. TNK-BP Russian shareholders, who include billionaires Mikhail Fridman, German Khan, Viktor Vekselberg and Len Blavatnik, have repeatedly denied plans to sell out.
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